June 17, 1999
Web posted at: 4:13 p.m. EDT (2013 GMT)

WASHINGTON (AllPolitics, June 17) -- In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan put a lock on the Electoral College by building a huge strategic base across the South and West.

In the 1990s, Bill Clinton picked that lock. His majority was a three-legged stool: the Northeast, the West Coast and the Upper Midwest -- smaller and wobblier than Reagan's base, but enough to win.

Who's got the strategic advantage going into 2000? So far this year, there have been polls in 16 states pitting front-runners George W. Bush and Al Gore against each other, enough to give us some clues about which majority, Reagan's or Clinton's, is falling into place for 2000.

Of the 16 states, Gore is ahead in only three and only by single digits in each of them: his home state of Tennessee, reliably Democratic Hawaii, and one big prize, New York.

All three of those states voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Well, it's a start.

Bush has single-digit leads in five states. He's ahead in Louisiana in the South, New Jersey and Massachusetts in the Northeast. The homeland of the Kennedys tilting toward the GOP? Yes.

Plus, Bush controls Iowa in the Upper Midwest and -- my goodness -- California.

All five of those states voted for Clinton twice.

The Democrats simply cannot win without California. Clinton's greatest tactical achievement was snatching California from the Republicans grasp. In 2000, Republicans may have an opportunity to snatch it back.

There are three states where Bush leads by larger margins, 10 to 20 points. Two key states are in the Upper Midwest, Michigan and Ohio -- Clinton carried those states twice. The third state is South Carolina, which went for Bush and Dole.

Finally, there are five states where Bush leads Gore by huge margins: Texas, of course, Bush has a 56-point lead in his home state and Oklahoma, which is sort of a suburb of Texas, plus Alabama in the deep South. No big surprises there, those states voted for Bush in '92 and Dole in '96.

Add to those three, New Hampshire, not many electoral votes but symbolically important because of its first-in-the-nation primary. New Hampshire is a northeastern state that voted for Clinton twice.

Arizona voted Republican in every presidential election from 1952 through 1992. Yes, even 1964, Barry Goldwater was from Arizona, remember? In 1996, Clinton surprised the political world when he carried Arizona. Good news Sen. Goldwater, wherever you are, it looks like Arizona is headed back to the GOP column for 2000.

Bush seems to be building a big strategic advantage, maybe even reclaiming the Reagan electoral lock. Bush may have a strong enough base in the South, the farm belt and the Rockies, to carry the fight to the Northeast and California, the Democrats' core territory.

For Republicans, 2000 could be the year of restoration, with George W. Bush as the restoration prince.

Thursday, June 17, 1999

• House approves NRA-backed 24-hour gun show checks
• Gore, on campaign stump, says no return to 'old and broken policies of past'
• Transcript: Al Gore's chat with AllPolitics
• Election briefs: News on Quayle, Dole and Bradley
• Hatch may join already-crowded GOP presidential field
• State polls give early glimpse at electoral break down
• Hatch demands conclusion to Justice probe of Starr
• Holbrooke faces GOP grilling on ethics charges
• At fund-raiser, Forbes raises $1 million for 2000 presidential bid
• U.S. on road to online voting
• Vietnam crypt at Tomb of the Unknowns to remain empty
• Gore and Bush: Two slick, made-for-TV campaigns solidify candidates' front-runner status
• House panel OKs bill that would prevent federal shutdowns
• Senate considers loan guarantees for steel, oil and gas
• Gore sees boost from first lady in Senate race
• REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK: A nostalgic stroll and mob control
• House panel, Clinton administration explore Social Security compromise
• Republicans use Gore's words against him
• Ickes, a tenacious operative, Mrs. Clinton's 'oak tree' in New York
• Education Department lowers fees on government loans
• Summers says his challenge will be to stay the course
• Gore balances Clinton loyalty, independence
• Secrets make Washington world's 'shredder capital'
• Medical privacy debate hits snag over abortion
• Senate Democrats block House-passed GOP Social Security plan

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