October 22, 1999
Web posted at: 6:52 p.m. EDT (2252 GMT)

HAMPTON BEACH, New Hampshire -- Among the conventional wisdoms of the coming election year is that trying to determine who will win the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary will be more unpredictable than ever.

That's due to the fact that some 27 percent of voters in the state are registered independents able to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary.

But it turns out that under the free-thinking surface, some three-quarters of New Hampshire independents actually have some partisan feelings, according to recent polling.

The great majority of New Hampshirites who don't register Republican or Democrat actually lean -- sometimes enough to induce vertigo -- one way or the other. These independents aren't loyal to either party per se but they lean toward one party or another based on whether they're conservative or liberal.

"These are people that tend to be higher income, higher education levels. They don't like to be pigeon-holed as Republicans or Democrats," said Andy Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center. "They want to consider themselves as independent voters, who really weigh the issues, who vote for the candidate, not the party -- but in actual fact, they vote for the party, pretty consistently. They are quite predictable."

However, the wild card this election cycle is that independents don't care about party loyalty.

That may dampen Republican attacks on GOP candidate Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has repeatedly defied his own party hierarchy.

It could also dampen attacks on Democratic candidate Bill Bradley by Vice President Al Gore, who has accused the former New Jersey senator of being a less than loyal Democrat.

To independents, party loyalty just doesn't matter all that much. Cathy Chevalier says she's a strong McCain supporter because she's a conservative.

"The independents don't relate so much to the candidate because of the party, but more to them because of their beliefs and whether they are more conservative or liberal beliefs. I think that's where you'll find the independents," Chevalier said.

On the other side of the coin are the Williams sisters, who are liberals who lean Democratic and love Bill Bradley. But remove Bradley from the picture and it gets a bit confusing.

"If say - it was a Gore-McCain race - I would probably vote McCain," Alyson Williams said. "I like McCain better. I don't think he has all the ties of the Clinton Administration with him. I think it's time we get a new face in there."

Her sister in a McCain-Gore race would vote Gore because of his stand on abortion rights. "That would be the deciding factor for me. So I would vote for Gore," said Amy Williams.

The voters are voting for the candidate and the message and not the party. That could yet tip the scales next February 1 in New Hampshire.

Friday, October 22, 1999

• Independents are the wild card in New Hampshire
• Lott tax bill would make business research credit permanent
• GOP leaders would cut federal agency spending by 1.4 percent
• Democratic panel refuses four states' requests to move up primaries
• Bush backs abortion restriction, but points to other issues
• Louisiana votes on governor Saturday
• Buchanan memos from the 1970s foreshadow 2000 politics
• Bush backers populate group running ads against Democrats
• Sen. Boxer takes on Lott over judicial nominations
• House passes education plan for poor without vouchers
• Publisher recalling controversial Bush book
• Late-night compromise reached on banking reform bill
• The White House budget negotiator: Partisan, but flexible

ARCHIVES